Pre-Ashes Thoughts : Will Bayliss's buoyant England triumph?
by Chris
England's cricketing summer overall could be considered an enormous success. Victories over South Africa and the Windies, as well as a Champions Trophy semi-final appearance, would all but suggest that the England side heading halfway across the world are claiming the Ashes before a ball is bowled. Of course, the well known frail, shaky, and inconsistent top order of the last 36 months has all but collapsed despite victories this summer, with Keaton Jennings being the main culprit in the summer of 2017. Well known predecessors include Middlesex's steady Sam Robson, teammate and fellow stalwart Nick Compton, one day specialist Alex Hales, and T20 blast record holder Adam Lyth. All showed limited promise and limited talent at Test match level, and who's to say the same won't happen to the class of '17. Although encouragement was definitely seen against the Windies in the final 9 wicket win, the two newcomers only scored 40-odd each...at no point should one be judged on a singular performance, especially in those circumstances, against a ragged, inconsistent bowling attack, with decent batting conditions, and against a generally deflated Windies overall.
On the bright side, Australia's incompetence is remarkably similar to that of Bayliss's England. Two reliable run getters at the top in Smith and Warner, with an excellent middle order including Peter Handscomb, who interestingly, when presented the baggy green by Chris Rogers in November 2016, scored 399 runs at 99.75 in 4 test matches (1 SA, 3 PAK). In these four tests, he was not dismissed for less than fifty. They also have a seam attack consisting of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins, who all bring alternative qualities. Mitchell Starc, now an Australian fast bowling icon, has 148 wickets at 24.81, will always be a danger to England's debilitated top order. Hazlewood, a silver lining for Australia in his performances in the 3-2 defeat in England in 2015, is sure to have improved his ever accurate and intruding skiddy seamers. Finally, Cummins, who since a destructive debut vs South Africa, has struggled for fitness. A resurgence in the past year and a half has seen him back in the one day international, t20 and test match sides, and his stats don't lie either, taking 25 wickets in 5 matches at 25.38. Seems a daunting prospect for the somewhat frustrating England, especially with the pacy and bouncy Australian conditions.
My England XI to face Australia in Brisbane:
1: Alastair COOK (Batsman)
Age : 32
Tests: 147
Runs: 11,629
Average: 46.33
Of course, what can be said about the all-time record scorer for England within test matches. The staunch unswerving Essex batsman has only injury to contend with for him not to be playing in that test at Brisbane in November. Although ever dependable, his record in Australia isn't as fantastic as in other conditions. He had a fabulous tour in England's defence of the 2009 Ashes, where England trounced Australia 3-1 on their own turf in 2010. In that particular tour he bagged 3 centuries which guided England to their first victory in Australia since Gower's '85 conquest. His other tours have been less than ideal, as England have been annihilated 5-0 both times, and Cook's chances and form faded in those situations.
I predict Cook's tour to go one of two ways. For those who know me well, I'm never one to sit on the fence, but there is no telling the way of Cook's time in Australia. If he clicks in Brisbane, and that doesn't mean scoring runs but occupying the crease, Cook will aid and be a big part of England's chances of either putting up a really good fight and losing, or being victorious in Australia. It's a good chance that as he will be a ripe old age of 36 on the 2021 tour, that this could be his last tour of Australia, and he will be determined to make it as good as the display in 2010.
2: Mark STONEMAN (Batsman)
Age : 30
Tests : 3
Runs : 120
Average : 30:00
The variably flamboyant and stony Geordie hasn't hit the ground running as such in the test series against the Windies, but has showed promise with a top score of 52 and an applaudable 40*. He certainly has portrayed the game for test cricket thus far but with Starc and co. on the hunt for wickets it could prove difficult for the Surrey star to cope in the demanding pace conditions. His demise this summer has come thrice to swinger Kemar Roach, so maybe in the faster conditions he can thrive more and score some vital runs with Alastair Cook at the top of England's order, which I most definitely back him to do.
I predict that again, if settled in Brisbane, with a 40 or 50, Stoneman could be an integral part of the side, and emerge as England's latest "old-age" developer, along with Plunkett and the like. The possibility of a tour of failure and eventual discharge from the first XI also hangs over him, especially if he has two poor tests in both Brisbane and Adelaide in the 'day-nighter'. I definitely think his talent, ability and attitude are a class above those who have preceded.
3: Dawid MALAN (Batsman)
Age: 30
Tests: 5
Runs : 189
Average : 23.62
A barren spell for one England opener has usually been coupled with a less than competent number 3 at the same time, leading to Cook and Root generally being together at around 40/50. Malan's had a less than successful summer to say the least. For a man that's been knocking on England's door for several years, he's been a bit of a let-down, especially after a wonderful 78 in the t20 vs South Africa. A failure at number 5 although has impressed at several occasions with a dogged 65 at Edgbaston, and a below par 61 considering his performance at Headingly. So why does he deserve a promotion to 3? Well the board of selectors have tended to have preferred character over run scoring, which Malan definitely has in abundance. He's also exhibited at county level that he has the capacity to do the latter, which is why I think they should lean towards him to bat at 3. His talents are wasted at 5, as it seems he needs longer to settle, but if Malan can stick at it and become a good occupier of the crease, his contributions could aid England hugely.
I believe Malan may not have the greatest tour, but he will always be in England's plans for 2018 because of his never-say-die attitude and dogged determination. His record can only go one way for England (I hope!) and hopefully his tenacity can uphold England's ashes defence.
4. Joe ROOT (C) (Batsman/Part time Off spinner)
Age: 26 Wickets: 15
Tests: 60 Best: 2-9
Runs: 5,323
Average : 53.76
Joe Root's tour will be a success, and I predict him to be England's top run-scorer during the series, due to his truly excellent ability to assess any situation from ball one. He always knows when to switch gears, and he will be the main problem for Australia to solve for definite, as Smith will be a huge issue for England.
5. Gary BALLANCE (Batsman)
Age: 27
Tests: 23
Runs: 1498
Average: 37.45
It's testing my impartiality to put this man in at Test level once again as he completely frustrates me, but he just keeps performing at Yorkshire and it cannot be ignored. 3 hundreds and 4 50's at 77.75 is an extremely successful period for the persistent Zimbabwean, and the unlucky way he was ejected from the England line up after his recall against South Africa shouldn't be counted as one of his many demises in an England shirt. I've always said one shouldn't judge on runs, but this man just keeps delivering bucket loads for the white roses. For me, I'd give him 5 tests to define his career. Tell him his slot at number 5 is locked for the entirety of the Ashes and see how he reacts. Of course, the start of his test career was unbelievable, scoring 1,019 runs in his first 10 tests at 67.93, but his technique came under great criticism, but he remains true to it to this day, and if it gives you 933 runs in 11 matches you're not going to complain! The opposing argument is that Ballance has found his level at County level, and that his talents are only suited to the lesser pressure, and I completely agree. But the man has performed out of his skin once again this season, and this tour should prove his final chance to impress selectors and regain that form of 2014.
If selected, as an anti-Ballance man that I am, I think his tour will be a massive disappointment, and finally he will be out of the picture. But he deserves one, final chance to prove himself in the 5 slot and if he can't I don't think he should ever be considered for selection again. His form for Yorkshire just cannot be ignored.
6. Ben STOKES (All-Rounder)
Age: 26 Wickets: 95
Tests: 39 Best: 6-22
Runs: 2,429 Average: 33.93
Average: 35.72
The cult-hero Durham lad has proven his worth in 2017 even more than previous years, especially his development with the ball in the matches against the Windies. His presence and fitness is an irreplaceable part of England's team. If he clicks and performs to his strengths, he is sometimes unassailable. His 258 in South Africa was the proof of this and will go down in history as one of the greatest innings in English test match history. He could be likened to a Coutinho or Alexis Sanchez figure within football, although occasionally inconsistent can win a game singlehandedly from nothing. In this way, his natural talent with the bat surpasses that of Cook and Root comfortably.
Stokes's tour with the bat I'm sure will be a success, but the true judgement of his tour should come as England's 4th seamer. Of course, the ever dependable Anderson and Broad will do what they've always done for the last decade and that's take wickets, but England's success with the ball for me depends on the success of the 'lesser' three of Stokes, Woakes and Ali. But, injury preventing, Stokes will be an essential part of the jigsaw for England's success.
7. Jonny BAIRSTOW (Wicketkeeper/Batsman)
Age: 28 Catches/Stumpings: 119/7
Tests: 45
Runs: 2,824
Average: 39.77
An excellent 2016 was proceeded by an equally fantastic 2017 for Bairstow in all formats, and is a strong contender for the world's best number 7, especially with the bat. Having fully established his superiority over one-day specialist and vice-captain Jos Buttler behind the sticks during the winter of 2015, he's confirmed his vitality to England's lower middle order. As a huge fan of Bairstow's determination and free flowing batting technique, I think contributions of 40-50 down the order to boost a big score, or even bigger scores to rescue an England innings are both extremely plausible if not very likely. Also with his introduction as an opener in the current one-day internationals and answering any critics by cruising to a marvellous century, I fully expect him to fulfil this role within the post-Ashes one-dayers.
Bairstow's tour should theoretically be a success with the bat judging by the fabulous few years he's having for England and Yorkshire, but the conditions of Australia could possibly unveil a weakness for him that we've yet to discover. If his tour doesn't go to plan with the bat, he's sure to recover behind the stumps as he's improved immeasurably taking some screamers during the two tours this summer.
8. Moeen ALI (All-Rounder)
Age: 30 Wickets: 128
Tests: 44 Best: 6-53
Runs: 2,288 Average: 37.32
Average: 34.66
Everyone loves Moeen! From an average all-rounder to a significant spinner and destructive lower order batsman, he's become an all important part of the class of 2017. A superb 25 wicket haul with an inclusive hat-trick in the 4 match series against South Africa has finally put him at the top of England's pecking order of spin. A less than consistent first 2 years as an England player, talk of his expiration heightened with the selections of Ansari, Dawson, and Batty across the last few years on tours of India and at home, but Moeen, the charismatic brummie, has prevailed.
Moeen's tour may not be dependent on his bowling statistics, with the Australian tours generally being dominated by seam and bounce, as seen with the distinctly average English performances by the likes of Finn and Tremlett in recent years but their dominance in Australia has won England the Ashes in some cases. But coming in at 8 Moeen should be a real force batting with the tail, and could add an additional few which could give England the boost they need to get the Ashes home.
9. Chris WOAKES (All-Rounder)
Age: 28 Wickets: 50
Tests: 18 Best: 6-70
Runs: 675 Average: 30.60
Average: 32.14
What will happen? Who knows! Not even credible cricket experts have a real opinion on which way the Ashes will fall, but as a cricket fan, I would slightly hedge my bets on Australia. In home conditions, before a series, with two teams with similar strengths and similar weaknesses, you would tend to head towards the home side purely because of knowledge of their own conditions which they've developed and grown up in. Hopefully this isn't the case, but we'll see come the 8th January.
England's cricketing summer overall could be considered an enormous success. Victories over South Africa and the Windies, as well as a Champions Trophy semi-final appearance, would all but suggest that the England side heading halfway across the world are claiming the Ashes before a ball is bowled. Of course, the well known frail, shaky, and inconsistent top order of the last 36 months has all but collapsed despite victories this summer, with Keaton Jennings being the main culprit in the summer of 2017. Well known predecessors include Middlesex's steady Sam Robson, teammate and fellow stalwart Nick Compton, one day specialist Alex Hales, and T20 blast record holder Adam Lyth. All showed limited promise and limited talent at Test match level, and who's to say the same won't happen to the class of '17. Although encouragement was definitely seen against the Windies in the final 9 wicket win, the two newcomers only scored 40-odd each...at no point should one be judged on a singular performance, especially in those circumstances, against a ragged, inconsistent bowling attack, with decent batting conditions, and against a generally deflated Windies overall.
On the bright side, Australia's incompetence is remarkably similar to that of Bayliss's England. Two reliable run getters at the top in Smith and Warner, with an excellent middle order including Peter Handscomb, who interestingly, when presented the baggy green by Chris Rogers in November 2016, scored 399 runs at 99.75 in 4 test matches (1 SA, 3 PAK). In these four tests, he was not dismissed for less than fifty. They also have a seam attack consisting of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins, who all bring alternative qualities. Mitchell Starc, now an Australian fast bowling icon, has 148 wickets at 24.81, will always be a danger to England's debilitated top order. Hazlewood, a silver lining for Australia in his performances in the 3-2 defeat in England in 2015, is sure to have improved his ever accurate and intruding skiddy seamers. Finally, Cummins, who since a destructive debut vs South Africa, has struggled for fitness. A resurgence in the past year and a half has seen him back in the one day international, t20 and test match sides, and his stats don't lie either, taking 25 wickets in 5 matches at 25.38. Seems a daunting prospect for the somewhat frustrating England, especially with the pacy and bouncy Australian conditions.
My England XI to face Australia in Brisbane:
1: Alastair COOK (Batsman)
Age : 32
Tests: 147
Runs: 11,629
Average: 46.33
Of course, what can be said about the all-time record scorer for England within test matches. The staunch unswerving Essex batsman has only injury to contend with for him not to be playing in that test at Brisbane in November. Although ever dependable, his record in Australia isn't as fantastic as in other conditions. He had a fabulous tour in England's defence of the 2009 Ashes, where England trounced Australia 3-1 on their own turf in 2010. In that particular tour he bagged 3 centuries which guided England to their first victory in Australia since Gower's '85 conquest. His other tours have been less than ideal, as England have been annihilated 5-0 both times, and Cook's chances and form faded in those situations.
I predict Cook's tour to go one of two ways. For those who know me well, I'm never one to sit on the fence, but there is no telling the way of Cook's time in Australia. If he clicks in Brisbane, and that doesn't mean scoring runs but occupying the crease, Cook will aid and be a big part of England's chances of either putting up a really good fight and losing, or being victorious in Australia. It's a good chance that as he will be a ripe old age of 36 on the 2021 tour, that this could be his last tour of Australia, and he will be determined to make it as good as the display in 2010.
2: Mark STONEMAN (Batsman)
Age : 30
Tests : 3
Runs : 120
Average : 30:00
The variably flamboyant and stony Geordie hasn't hit the ground running as such in the test series against the Windies, but has showed promise with a top score of 52 and an applaudable 40*. He certainly has portrayed the game for test cricket thus far but with Starc and co. on the hunt for wickets it could prove difficult for the Surrey star to cope in the demanding pace conditions. His demise this summer has come thrice to swinger Kemar Roach, so maybe in the faster conditions he can thrive more and score some vital runs with Alastair Cook at the top of England's order, which I most definitely back him to do.
I predict that again, if settled in Brisbane, with a 40 or 50, Stoneman could be an integral part of the side, and emerge as England's latest "old-age" developer, along with Plunkett and the like. The possibility of a tour of failure and eventual discharge from the first XI also hangs over him, especially if he has two poor tests in both Brisbane and Adelaide in the 'day-nighter'. I definitely think his talent, ability and attitude are a class above those who have preceded.
3: Dawid MALAN (Batsman)
Age: 30
Tests: 5
Runs : 189
Average : 23.62
A barren spell for one England opener has usually been coupled with a less than competent number 3 at the same time, leading to Cook and Root generally being together at around 40/50. Malan's had a less than successful summer to say the least. For a man that's been knocking on England's door for several years, he's been a bit of a let-down, especially after a wonderful 78 in the t20 vs South Africa. A failure at number 5 although has impressed at several occasions with a dogged 65 at Edgbaston, and a below par 61 considering his performance at Headingly. So why does he deserve a promotion to 3? Well the board of selectors have tended to have preferred character over run scoring, which Malan definitely has in abundance. He's also exhibited at county level that he has the capacity to do the latter, which is why I think they should lean towards him to bat at 3. His talents are wasted at 5, as it seems he needs longer to settle, but if Malan can stick at it and become a good occupier of the crease, his contributions could aid England hugely.
I believe Malan may not have the greatest tour, but he will always be in England's plans for 2018 because of his never-say-die attitude and dogged determination. His record can only go one way for England (I hope!) and hopefully his tenacity can uphold England's ashes defence.
4. Joe ROOT (C) (Batsman/Part time Off spinner)
Age: 26 Wickets: 15
Tests: 60 Best: 2-9
Runs: 5,323
Average : 53.76
In an ideal world, England would have 6 Joe Roots, as his balance of 'busy' cricket and tenacity is what usually comes to England's salvation. But sadly at the time of writing, cloning is unavailable so we'll just have to stick to one. One of the world's top 4 batsmen, Joe Root's qualities will have to be portrayed during England's travels down under. It's a must, and his mental battles with fellow global superstar and Australia skipper Steve Smith will be a deciding factor in who takes home the urn. The man who scored at least one 50 in 12 consecutive test matches, a joint record with AB de Villiers, will be eager to put right the wrongs of the previous tour which resulted in himself being dropped for the now Surrey 2nd teamer Scott Borthwick.
Joe Root's tour will be a success, and I predict him to be England's top run-scorer during the series, due to his truly excellent ability to assess any situation from ball one. He always knows when to switch gears, and he will be the main problem for Australia to solve for definite, as Smith will be a huge issue for England.
5. Gary BALLANCE (Batsman)
Age: 27
Tests: 23
Runs: 1498
Average: 37.45
It's testing my impartiality to put this man in at Test level once again as he completely frustrates me, but he just keeps performing at Yorkshire and it cannot be ignored. 3 hundreds and 4 50's at 77.75 is an extremely successful period for the persistent Zimbabwean, and the unlucky way he was ejected from the England line up after his recall against South Africa shouldn't be counted as one of his many demises in an England shirt. I've always said one shouldn't judge on runs, but this man just keeps delivering bucket loads for the white roses. For me, I'd give him 5 tests to define his career. Tell him his slot at number 5 is locked for the entirety of the Ashes and see how he reacts. Of course, the start of his test career was unbelievable, scoring 1,019 runs in his first 10 tests at 67.93, but his technique came under great criticism, but he remains true to it to this day, and if it gives you 933 runs in 11 matches you're not going to complain! The opposing argument is that Ballance has found his level at County level, and that his talents are only suited to the lesser pressure, and I completely agree. But the man has performed out of his skin once again this season, and this tour should prove his final chance to impress selectors and regain that form of 2014.
If selected, as an anti-Ballance man that I am, I think his tour will be a massive disappointment, and finally he will be out of the picture. But he deserves one, final chance to prove himself in the 5 slot and if he can't I don't think he should ever be considered for selection again. His form for Yorkshire just cannot be ignored.
6. Ben STOKES (All-Rounder)
Age: 26 Wickets: 95
Tests: 39 Best: 6-22
Runs: 2,429 Average: 33.93
Average: 35.72
The cult-hero Durham lad has proven his worth in 2017 even more than previous years, especially his development with the ball in the matches against the Windies. His presence and fitness is an irreplaceable part of England's team. If he clicks and performs to his strengths, he is sometimes unassailable. His 258 in South Africa was the proof of this and will go down in history as one of the greatest innings in English test match history. He could be likened to a Coutinho or Alexis Sanchez figure within football, although occasionally inconsistent can win a game singlehandedly from nothing. In this way, his natural talent with the bat surpasses that of Cook and Root comfortably.
Stokes's tour with the bat I'm sure will be a success, but the true judgement of his tour should come as England's 4th seamer. Of course, the ever dependable Anderson and Broad will do what they've always done for the last decade and that's take wickets, but England's success with the ball for me depends on the success of the 'lesser' three of Stokes, Woakes and Ali. But, injury preventing, Stokes will be an essential part of the jigsaw for England's success.
7. Jonny BAIRSTOW (Wicketkeeper/Batsman)
Age: 28 Catches/Stumpings: 119/7
Tests: 45
Runs: 2,824
Average: 39.77
An excellent 2016 was proceeded by an equally fantastic 2017 for Bairstow in all formats, and is a strong contender for the world's best number 7, especially with the bat. Having fully established his superiority over one-day specialist and vice-captain Jos Buttler behind the sticks during the winter of 2015, he's confirmed his vitality to England's lower middle order. As a huge fan of Bairstow's determination and free flowing batting technique, I think contributions of 40-50 down the order to boost a big score, or even bigger scores to rescue an England innings are both extremely plausible if not very likely. Also with his introduction as an opener in the current one-day internationals and answering any critics by cruising to a marvellous century, I fully expect him to fulfil this role within the post-Ashes one-dayers.
Bairstow's tour should theoretically be a success with the bat judging by the fabulous few years he's having for England and Yorkshire, but the conditions of Australia could possibly unveil a weakness for him that we've yet to discover. If his tour doesn't go to plan with the bat, he's sure to recover behind the stumps as he's improved immeasurably taking some screamers during the two tours this summer.
8. Moeen ALI (All-Rounder)
Age: 30 Wickets: 128
Tests: 44 Best: 6-53
Runs: 2,288 Average: 37.32
Average: 34.66
Everyone loves Moeen! From an average all-rounder to a significant spinner and destructive lower order batsman, he's become an all important part of the class of 2017. A superb 25 wicket haul with an inclusive hat-trick in the 4 match series against South Africa has finally put him at the top of England's pecking order of spin. A less than consistent first 2 years as an England player, talk of his expiration heightened with the selections of Ansari, Dawson, and Batty across the last few years on tours of India and at home, but Moeen, the charismatic brummie, has prevailed.
Moeen's tour may not be dependent on his bowling statistics, with the Australian tours generally being dominated by seam and bounce, as seen with the distinctly average English performances by the likes of Finn and Tremlett in recent years but their dominance in Australia has won England the Ashes in some cases. But coming in at 8 Moeen should be a real force batting with the tail, and could add an additional few which could give England the boost they need to get the Ashes home.
9. Chris WOAKES (All-Rounder)
Age: 28 Wickets: 50
Tests: 18 Best: 6-70
Runs: 675 Average: 30.60
Average: 32.14
Chris Woakes's 2016 could have struggled to have got much better. A fabulous home victory over Sri Lanka and an intense draw with Pakistan was treated as a decent enough home summer for England, but the star of this was the former 'nearly' man Chris Woakes. The same optimism was forethought for his 2017 season, but a despairing injury in his third over in the ICC Champions Trophy was an anticlimactic way to begin his English summer, and with the incredibly successful introduction of Middlesex's Toby Roland-Jones, it was a struggle to see how Woakes would fit in to this Ashes tour. But his prowess with the bat trumps the double barrelled swing man in all departments, and that was portrayed in the series win against the Windies, as he scored two masterful half-centuries guiding England to a 2-1 series win.
I think Woakes will be more of a success than Roland-Jones would be, purely because of his skiddy bounce and pace which the Middlesex man doesn't possess. He also boasts a better batting record and in my opinion a bigger capacity for improvement. He, Stokes and Moeen Ali will have to be an excellent support for Broad and Anderson for England's tour to be a success.
10: Stuart BROAD (Bowler)
Age: 31 Average: 28.81
Tests: 109
Wickets: 388
Best: 8-15
Second on the all-time wickets list for England behind his teammate, its hard to believe that this man is only 31. Although his 2017 hasn't been his best year, his consistent stump-attacking bowling has been as good as it has ever been, and in the day-night test match against the Windies he overtook the great Sir Ian Botham in the England wickets leaderboard, and this demonstrates his heroics over the previous few years.
Broad's tour is likely to either be his last or penultimate tour in Australia, and like Cook, he will be eager to have an excellent tour. and whether this will be to his detriment will be clear to see come Brisbane. Conditions should also be in Broad's favour and I back him to be England's top wicket taker on this tour.
11: James ANDERSON (Bowler)
Age: 35 Average: 27.39
Tests: 129
Wickets: 506
Best: 7-42
For definite, this will be 'Jimmy's' last tour of Australia, and who's to say it's not his final Ashes overall. The 'Lancashire Lara' has the chance to bow out in style in Australia by bringing the Ashes home. Although conditions are not ideal, Jimmy has taken wickets in whatever conditions he's been placed in, whether it be swinging English conditions, the dust bowls of India and Pakistan or the pacy pitches of South Africa and Australia.
Of course Jimmy will have a decent tour, he's Jimmy! But like he has done in the previous decade, he needs to just do what he does, not try anything fancy, and consistently attack the stumps and swing the new ball. The new ball will be crucial as the Kookaburra ball won't swing for as long as the Duke used in English cricket, and who better than arguably the best swing bowler of all time to use it.
Hey Chris great blog, well thought out and considered opinions, might be worth dropping a copy to TMS for their appraisal UM
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